Géza Sebestyén, an economist, is raising serious concerns about the Tisza government’s budget plan for 2027. The core of the issue is simple. The government is making expensive, long-term promises but it plans to pay for them partly with one-time savings and uncertain new revenue. This could create a major financial problem not next year but in 2028 and 2029.
The budget includes significant new spending commitments. These are not one-off items. They are ongoing costs. The list includes:
- 677 billion forints for public sector wage increases
- 510 billion for extra healthcare funding
- 300 billion to double family allowances
- New funding for public infrastructure
- Increased investment in education
- Support for renewable energy projects
Once you raise a public sector wage or double a family benefit, it is politically very difficult to take it back. These costs become permanent parts of the budget.
To pay for these promises, the government is counting on money that may not be there in future years. A central part of the plan involves 1,500 billion forints in state savings. The concern is that these savings might come from delaying investments or cutting costs in a way you cannot repeat every year. It is like saving money one time by skipping a car repair. You have the cash now but the problem still needs to be fixed later.
The budget also relies on new taxes that carry risk. For example, it expects 200 billion forints from a new wealth tax. Wealthy individuals and companies could respond by moving their assets or business management abroad. Over time, this could shrink the tax base and lead to lower revenue than expected. Higher taxes on companies could also discourage investment, leading to lower corporate profits and again, less tax income.
The government is already planning with a budget deficit of 4.9% of GDP. This leaves very little room for error. If the hoped-for savings and new revenues fall short, the government will face tough choices later. It could be forced to raise other taxes, cut spending in other areas or let the national debt grow even larger.
The biggest warning from Sebestyén is about timing. The real squeeze may not come in 2027. It could hit in the years that follow. By then, the new wage bills and benefit costs will be fully baked into the budget. At the same time, the one-time savings used to pay for them will be used up. The money to cover the permanent costs might simply not be there.
A responsible budget looks beyond a single year. It must show how you will pay for today’s promises not just now but five years from now. The current plan, according to this analysis, does not convincingly prove that. The true cost of the Tisza government’s commitments may only become clear later when the bills come due and the planned funding has already been spent.
| Commitment | Amount (billion forints) |
|---|---|
| Public sector wage increases | 677 |
| Extra healthcare funding | 510 |
| Double family allowances | 300 |
| New funding for public infrastructure | To be determined |
| Increased investment in education | To be determined |
| Support for renewable energy projects | To be determined |
